Taiwan Strait

Cross-strait military posture has hardened steadily since 2022. The People's Liberation Army runs near-continuous joint exercises around Taiwan, with Joint Sword 2024-A and 2024-B simulating blockade and decapitation scenarios, while ADIZ incursions and Coast Guard pressure on outer islands continue daily. Taipei's response leans on the asymmetric porcupine doctrine: Stinger, Javelin, HIMARS, Harpoon coastal defense batteries, and Volcano mine systems alongside ageing F-16Vs and a contested submarine programme. U.S. arms sales accelerated through the 2022 Taiwan Policy Act and subsequent presidential drawdowns. The strait remains the most consequential flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific, with global semiconductor supply chains running through TSMC's Hsinchu fabs.